Regular Season Importance

Division III: 32-Team and 40-Team Playoffs

Division III has run a 32-team playoff from 2005-2023 and expanded to a 40-team playoff in 2024, yet their regular season remains fiercely competitive. Why? Because there's an enormous difference between being a top seed with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs versus being a lower seed forced to travel for every game.

In Division III's 40-team format, the top overall seeds of four regions receive first-round byes and host games through the regional finals. Teams seeded 3-4 in each region host second-round games but must travel to face top seeds in the third round. The regular season determines who gets these massive advantages—teams fight for every win because the difference between being #1 and #3 in your region means an extra home game and avoiding the top seed until later rounds

Division II: 32-Team Playoff

Division II expanded to a 32-team playoff in 2025 and provides even more compelling evidence. In 2025, Harding went 11-0 in the regular season, earned the #1 seed in their super regional, hosted three consecutive playoff games, and was reseeded as the #3 overall seed for the semifinals. Ferris State also went 11-0, earned the #1 seed in their super regional, hosted three playoff games, was reseeded as the #1 overall seed for the semifinals, and hosted the semifinal game at home.

The regular season determined everything about their playoff experience. Both teams fought through undefeated regular seasons specifically to earn home-field advantage. Teams that finished 9-2 or 8-3 still made the playoff but had to travel on the road, facing much more difficult paths. The regular season mattered enormously because seeding created tangible, massive competitive advantages.

FCS: 24-Team Playoff

The FCS uses a 24-team playoff format with eight teams receiving first-round byes and automatic home games through the quarterfinals if they keep winning. FCS teams desperately compete for top-8 seeds because the alternative—playing an extra first-round game on the road—is a significant disadvantage.

Prior to their jump to Division I FBS, North Dakota State's dynasty (winning ten FCS championships from 2011-2025) was built partly on regular season excellence that earned them top seeds and home playoff games. Their regular seasons were intensely competitive because they knew seeding determined whether they'd host playoff games in the brutal North Dakota winter (a massive home-field advantage) or travel to warmer climates to face opponents in hostile environments.

Seeding Creates Enormous Stakes

In a 32-team playoff, the difference between the #1 seed and #16 seed includes:

• Two guaranteed home games vs one home game (or zero for unseeded teams): Home-field advantage in college football is worth approximately 3-4 points per game according to advanced analytics
• Facing the lowest unseeded team vs facing the highest unseeded team: Playing the absolute weakest team in the playoff vs a quality at-large selection
• Much easier path to championship: Top seeds face weaker opponents longer into the playoff, while lower seeds must upset elite teams immediately

Example scenario: Indiana finishes the regular season ranked #1, while USC finishes #16. Indiana gets two guaranteed home games and would face the lowest unseeded team (likely a 4 or 5-loss non-power FBS conference champion) in round one. If Indiana wins, they host the winner of #16 vs the top unseeded team (who would be ranked #17) in round two—still likely winnable at home. If they reach the quarterfinals, they get first choice of New Year's Six bowl location.

USC, despite making the playoff, gets only one home game and hosts the top unseeded team in round one. If USC wins, they must travel to face the #1 seed on the road in round two (given that the #1 seed takes care of business). Would you rather be Indiana or USC?

Conference Championships Still Matter

Winning your conference championship guarantees an automatic bid to the playoff. However, conference champions still compete intensely for seeding:

• An undefeated or 1-loss power conference champion is a shoe-in for a top 8 seed, gaining two guaranteed home games
• A 2-loss power conference champion has a chance of earning a top 8 seed, getting two guaranteed home games, or be a top 16 seed, meaning at least one guaranteed home game
• A 3-loss power conference champion has a chance of earning a top 16 seed, gaining at least one home game, have a slim chance of a top 8 seed, which would give them two guaranteed home games, or be one of the top unseeded teams, meaning no home games and facing a top seed on the road immediately
• A power conference champion with four losses or more would be one of the unseeded teams, meaning no home games and facing a top seed on the road immediately
• An undefeated, 1-loss, or 2-loss non-power FBS conference champion getting a top 16 seed or not depends on the overall body of work.
  • Undefeated or 1-loss non power FBS conference champions have an outside shot of a top 8 seed, which would give them two home games. Otherwise, they could either be a top 16 seed, getting at least one home game but get a tougher second-round matchup (regardless of at home or on the road), or be one of the top unseeded teams, meaning no home games and facing a top seed on the road immediately.
  • 2-loss non-power FBS conference champions can either be a top 16 seed, getting at least one home game but get a tougher second-round matchup (regardless of at home or on the road), or be one of the top unseeded teams, meaning no home games and facing a top seed on the road immediately
  • Let's look at a few examples:
    • 2023 Liberty went undefeated but played the weakest schedule in FBS. They were ranked #23 in the final CFP rankings just slightly ahead of 2-loss American (formerly AAC) Champion SMU.
    • 2024 Boise State went 12-1 as Mountain West champion and was ranked #9 after playing three power conference opponents—Oregon (Big Ten), Washington State, and Oregon State (both still Pac-12 members at the time, though they will transition to the rebuilt non-power Pac-12 starting in 2026) with their only loss being a close game to then #1 Oregon.
    • 2025 James Madison went 12-1 and won the Sun Belt. However, they were ranked only #24 in the final CFP rankings behind 11-2 Tulane. Tulane played a significantly stronger non-conference schedule with three power conference opponents (Northwestern, Duke, Ole Miss) compared to JMU's single power conference game (against Louisville). Despite having one more loss, Tulane's schedule strength earned them a higher ranking, demonstrating that non-power conference champions must schedule aggressively to compete for top seeds.
• A conference champion from a non-power FBS conference with at least three losses is likely unseeded, meaning no home games and facing a top seed on the road immediately

A power conference champion is a shoe-in for a top 16 seed as long as they take care of business and not lose more than three games. For non-power FBS conference champions, the schedule strength separates getting a top 16 seed and becoming unseeded. 2024 Boise State went 12-1 as Mountain West champion and was ranked #9 after playing three power conference opponents (Oregon, Washington State, Oregon State) with their only regular season loss being a close game to then-#1 Oregon. In contrast, 2025 James Madison went 12-1 as Sun Belt champion but was ranked only #24 after playing just one power opponent (Louisville) and lacking quality wins. 2023 Liberty went undefeated in the regular season, but played the weakest schedule in the FBS. In a 32-team playoff, Boise State would likely earn a top-16 seed with at least one home game, while Liberty and JMU would likely be unseeded and face a top seed on the road immediately—despite identical and/or better records.

The difference between going undefeated, only losing once or twice, and losing 3 or more games as a power or non-power conference champion is enormous. Home-field advantage and opponent quality change dramatically based on who you played during the regular season.

Quality Wins Are Critical

The selection committee ranks all 32 playoff teams, and seeding is determined by:

• Overall record and strength of schedule
• Quality wins (especially against top-25 opponents)
• Avoiding bad losses (particularly to teams outside the top 100)
• Performance in conference play

Playing tough non-conference games improves playoff positioning. A team that schedules challenging opponents and goes 10-2 with wins over ranked teams will earn a better seed than a team that goes 11-1 against a weak schedule. Running up the score against cupcakes doesn't help seeding—the committee values quality wins over hollow statistics.

This incentivizes teams to schedule aggressively rather than padding records. The current system discourages tough non-conference games because one loss can eliminate playoff hopes entirely. A 32-team playoff rewards teams for taking risks in scheduling because even an 11-1 or 10-2 team with quality wins makes the field—and earns better seeding than an 11-1 team that avoided competition.

March Madness

College basketball's regular season is hugely important despite 68 of 362 Division I teams making the NCAA Tournament (nearly 19%). Why? Seeding. The difference between a #1 seed and a #8 seed or lower is massive. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985:

• #1 seeds win the national championship approximately 65% of the time
• #2-4 seeds combine for about 28% of championships
• Four #5 seeds finished as National Runner-Ups
• A #6, #7, and #8 seed have each won it all only once
• A #8 seed is the lowest seed to win it all
• A #9 seed or lower has never won it all. However, so far:
  • Two #16 Seeds have pulled off upsets in the first round
  • One #15 Seed made it to the Elite Eight
  • Two #14 Seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen
  • Six #13 Seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen
  • Two #12 Seeds made it to the Elite Eight
  • Six #11 Seeds made it to the Final Four
  • One #10 Seed made it to the Final Four
  • Two #9 Seeds made it to the Final Four

NFL Playoffs

The NFL playoffs include 14 of 32 teams (43.75% of the league), yet NFL regular seasons remain intensely competitive. Teams battle for division championships, first-round byes (for top seeds), and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The difference between the #1 seed and #7 seed is enormous:

• #1 seed gets a first-round bye and hosts every playoff game until the Super Bowl
• #7 seed plays an extra game on the road and must win three straight road games to reach the Super Bowl

NFL teams with first-round byes and home-field advantage win championships at vastly higher rates than wild card teams. This creates immense regular season stakes even for teams that have already clinched playoff spots.

The False Narrative

The claim that a 32-team playoff makes the regular season meaningless is a false narrative perpetuated by those who favor the current system or smaller playoff formats. The evidence proves otherwise:

• Division III (40 teams), Division II (32 teams), and FCS (24 teams) all have highly competitive regular seasons
• March Madness (68 teams) has one of the most watched and celebrated regular seasons in sports
• The NFL (14 of 32 teams) has the highest television ratings in American sports for regular season games

In every successful playoff system, larger fields increase regular season intensity because seeding creates enormous competitive advantages. The 32-team FBS playoff would follow this proven model.

Why Expansion is Inevitable

You could argue that a 32-team playoff faces the same concerns as smaller formats about regular season importance. However, with the correct selection method and seeding structure, it thrives. Eventually, college football will expand to 32 teams. Even a 24-team playoff would face pressure to grow as conferences continue realigning and adding members.

The longer expansion to 32 teams is delayed, the more inevitable it becomes. The current 12-team format is already too small for a landscape with two super power conferences. Waiting only makes the eventual transition more disruptive. Implementing 32 teams now creates a stable, long-term solution that accommodates all conferences while maintaining regular season intensity through meaningful seeding.